A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
